The debate on the accuracy of official estimates has been reignited by a recent presentation by real estate company International Property Advisor (IPA) on the estimated supply of private housing units in the pipeline.
The presentation emphasised that the number of private homes projected to be completed every year has generally fluctuated over time. The number is compiled by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on a quarterly basis.
The fluctuation in the projected supply for this year was particularly pronounced, said Ku Swee Yong, chief executive of IPA.
“The estimates for 2010 were first published in Q1 2006. And since we were four-and-a-half years away from 2010, we would be right to expect that most developers would not have planned for projects so far ahead yet,” said Mr. Ku. “However, from 2009 onwards, as we progressed to within 12-24 months from the end of 2010, the completion numbers should have become more and more precise.”
However, this was not the case, said Mr. Ku, citing that the URA’s publication in Q3 2009 said only 5,737 units would be completed this year, but the figure rose to 7,584 in Q4 2009.
In the URA’s Q3 2010 publication, the agency said 10,536 private homes would be completed in 2010. Over 8,300 units have already been completed in the first nine months of the year.
Responding to a query from The Business Times, the URA said the computation of the estimated supply of private housing units in the pipeline is based on the expected completion dates of projects with planning approval, which is obtained through the quarterly survey of developers by the URA.
“The expected completion dates of projects are estimated by the developers, and not projected by URA. The progress of the construction of various projects may be faster or slower than earlier estimated by the developers, who may revise the expected completion dates of their projects,” said a URA spokesperson.
“New projects which are issued with planning approval every quarter may also be added on. Similarly, projects for which planning approvals lapsed in the reference quarter are removed.”
“As a result, the estimated supply of new units that are expected to be completed over the next few years may change every quarter,” he added.